I know it will be too much to fit in that tiny bubble of yours. In fact it is impenetrable but....January 2017 eruption of heavy fighting and failed ceasefires
A view from a Ukrainian Armed Forces support point near Pisky, January 2017
2016 was the first full calendar year of the conflict in which Ukraine lost no territories to pro-Russian forces.[467] In addition, both the Ukrainian Armed Forces (211 combat losses and 256 non-combat losses) and the local populace (13 in Ukrainian government-controlled areas) suffered significantly less casualties than in 2015.[467] The new year, however, brought a new eruption of heavy fighting, starting on 29 January 2017, centred on the Ukrainian-controlled city of Avdiivka.[468]
On 18 February 2017, Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree whereby the Russian authorities would recognise personal and vehicle-registration documents issued by the DPR and LPR.[469] The presidential decree referred to "permanent residents of certain areas of Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", without any mention of the self-proclaimed People's Republics.[470] Ukrainian authorities decried the decree as being directly contradictory to the Minsk II agreement and that it "legally recognised the quasi-state terrorist groups which cover Russia's occupation of part of Donbas."[471] Secretary General of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Lamberto Zannier stated on 19 February the decree "implies...recognition of those who issue the documents, of course" and that it would make it more difficult to hold a ceasefire.[472]
A Ukrainian soldier inside a trench. Extensive trench networks were built at the frontlines and the conflict turned into trench warfare.
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, after meeting with his Ukrainian, German and French counterparts in Munich on 18 February, said that a ceasefire between Ukraine and the separatists had been agreed effective from 20 February 2017.[473] But according to a Ukrainian Armed Forces spokesman on 20 February 2017 separatists attacks continued, although he did state there was a "significant reduction in military activity."[474] On 21 February OSCE's Secretary General Zannier stated there were still a significant number of violations of the cease-fire and "no evidence of the withdrawal of weapons".[475]
According to both parties to the conflict, the fourth truce attempt of 2017 collapsed within a few hours on 24 June 2017.[476] A "back to school ceasefire" to begin on 25 August 2017 also immediately collapsed when, on that very day, both combatants claimed that the other side had violated it.[477] A further "Christmas ceasefire" that was to be upheld starting 00:00 (Eastern European Time) on 23 December 2017 was immediately broken by DPR and LPR forces according to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (reporting nine violations including the death of a Ukrainian soldier killed by an enemy sniper and claiming the Ukrainians had not fired back[478][479]).[480][481] In turn, the DPR stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had broken the truce, while the LPR Luganskinformcenter news agency said the same, but also that, the "ceasefire is generally observed."[481][482] On 27 December 2017, as part of the Minsk deal, a prisoner swap was conducted with 73 Ukrainian soldiers exchanged for over 200 separatists.[483]
On 18 January 2018, the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill to regain control over separatist-held areas. The bill was adopted with support from 280 lawmakers in the 450-seat Verkhovna Rada[484] (due to the war in the Donbas and the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, only 423 of the parliament's 450 seats were elected in the previous election[485][486][487]). The Russian government denounced the bill, calling it "preparations for a new war",[488] and accused the Ukrainian government of violating the Minsk agreement. The law on the reintegration of Donbas labeled the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as "temporarily-occupied territories", while Russia was labeled as an "aggressor". The legislation granted President Poroshenko "the right to use military force inside the country, without consent from the Ukrainian parliament", which would include the reclaiming of Donbas. The bill supports a ban on trade and a transport blockade of the east that has been in place since 2017. Under the legislation, the only separatist-issued documents that Ukraine would recognize are birth and death certificates.
A new ceasefire agreed by all parties to the conflict went into force on 5 March 2018.[489] By 9 March, the Ukrainian military claimed it was not being observed by the DPR and LPR forces, who in turn claimed the same of the Ukrainian military.[489] On 26 March 2018, the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine agreed on a "comprehensive, sustainable and unlimited ceasefire" that was to start on 30 March 2018.[490] It collapsed on its first day.[490] Ukraine officially ended the "Anti-Terrorist Operation" (ATO), and replaced it with "Joint Forces Operation" (JFO) on 30 April 2018.[491][492][493][494][495][496] According to Lieutenant-General Serhii Naiev, the commander of the Joint Forces Operation, the renaming was intended to signify that Ukraine was not fighting against indigenous "terrorists" or "separatist militants" in the Donbas, but against the Russian military.[31] On the same day, the United States confirmed that it had delivered Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine.[497] According to The Washington Post, the missiles will be kept away from the front line, and would be used only in the case of an all-out separatist assault.[498]
On 28 June 2018, a new "harvest" "comprehensive and indefinite ceasefire regime" was agreed set to start on 1 July 2018.[499] Within hours after its start both pro-Russian and Ukrainian sides accused each other of violating this truce.[500] The 29 August 2018 ceasefire also failed.[501][39] On 31 August 2018, DPR leader Alexander Zakharchenko was killed in an explosion at a restaurant.[502]
As reported on 27 December 2018, Yuriy Biriukov, an advisor to Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, claimed that almost the entire "grey zone" between the warring sides had been liberated from Russian-led forces without breaching the Minsk peace agreements, and came under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.[503] This was confirmed the following day by Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Viktor Muzhenko.[504] On the same day, a new (and the 22nd[505] attempt at an) indefinite truce starting midnight 29 December was agreed.[506] Both the Ukrainians and the separatists accused each other of violating the ceasefire on the day it came into effect.[507]
On 7 March 2019, the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine agreed on a new truce to start on 8 March 2019.[508] Although Ukraine claimed that "Russian proxies" (the separatists) had violated it on the same day, fighting did die down, with the Ukrainian side stating that the ceasefire was fully observed from 10 March 2019.[509] In June, Russia began distributing Russian passports to Ukrainians living in the regions of Donbas.[510] Which was considered by Ukrainian government as a step towards annexation of the region.[511][512]
October 2019 Steinmeier formula agreement and July 2020 ceasefire
Zelenskyy, Merkel, Macron and Putin in Paris, France, December 2019
Following extensive negotiations, Ukraine, Russia, the DPR, LPR, and the OSCE signed an agreement to try to end the conflict in the Donbas on 1 October 2019. Called the "Steinmeier formula", after its proposer, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the agreement envisages free elections in DPR and LPR territories, observed and verified by the OSCE, and the subsequent reintegration of those territories into Ukraine with special status. Russia demanded the agreement's signing before any continuation of the "Normandy format" peace talks.[50] A survey of public opinion in DPR and LPR-controlled Donbas conducted by the Centre for East European and International Studies in March 2019 found that 55% of those polled favoured reintegration with Ukraine. 24% of those in favour of reintegration supported a return to the pre-war administrative system for Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, while 33% percent supported special status for the region.[513]
Ukrainian National Guard soldier in a security checkpoint near the JFO zone, 2019.
In line with the Steinmeier formula, Ukrainian and separatist troops began withdrawing from the town of Zolote on 29 October. Attempts to withdraw earlier in the month had been prevented by protests from Ukrainian war veterans.[514] A further withdrawal was successfully completed in Petrovske during November. Following the withdrawals, and a successful Russian–Ukrainian prisoner swap, Russian president Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French president Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Angela Merkel met in Paris on 9 December 2019 in a resumption of the Normandy format talks.[515] The two sides agreed to exchange all remaining prisoners of war by the end of 2019, work toward new elections in the Donbas, and schedule further talks.[516]
The COVID-19 pandemic deteriorated the living conditions in the conflict zone.[517] Particularly, quarantine measures imposed by Ukraine, the DPR, and the LPR prevented those in the occupied territories from crossing the line of contact, negating access to critical resources.[518][517] Fighting increased in March 2020, with nineteen civilians killed, more than in the previous five months combined.[517] While some crossings opened to small numbers of people in June 2020, the DPR introduced new regulations, ostensibly to prevent the spread of coronavirus, which made it nigh impossible for most people to cross the line of contact. In contrast, the Russian border completely reopened.[519]
The 29th attempt[52] at a "full and comprehensive" ceasefire came into effect on 27 July 2020.[520] During his 24 August 2020 Ukrainian Independence Day speech, President Zelenskyy announced the ceasefire had held, leading to 29 days without combat losses.[521] Zelenskyy also admitted, however, that despite the prisoner exchange and de-mining operations that had taken place, the peace process did not move as fast as he had expected when he signed the 9 December 2019 summit.[51] On 6 September 2020, the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported its first combat loss since the 27 July 2020 truce, when a soldier was killed by shelling.[522] Despite this, President Zelenskyy stated on 7 November 2020 that since the July 2020 ceasefire was established, deaths of Ukrainian soldiers in combat had decreased tenfold, and the number of attacks on soldiers decreased by five-and-a-half-fold.[523] From 27 July 2020 until 7 November 2020, only three Ukrainian soldiers were killed.[523]
Trump in his brilliance that he claims he has, could have got involved with the peace talks and sorted it out when President. But as you can see, he didn't really involve himself except for trying to solicit information against Biden early in the peace.
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