LOLHi OzI certainly hope Monty's predictions dont come to...

LOL

Hi Oz
I certainly hope Monty's predictions dont come to fruition, although if they do I will be backing up the truck.

IMO this market is still well and truly working on a negative feedback loop, trillions of dollars being injected by governments around the world has yet to hit the real economy although this should begin to have an impact in 1st half 09. International efforts to stimulate growth are unprecedented and indeed are ongoing.
There is certainly pain ahead for many but valuations atm are beyond fundamentals and based largely on fear. Markets typically swing too hard in both directions and there is no better example of this (in my mind) than the POO. 5-6 mths ago we witnessed the big blow off high at around US$147 bb. Has demand for oil fallen by 60-70% ? I dont think so. Are the recently urbanised Chinese going to return to the countryside to resume a subsistence existence ? I dont think so...there will be a revolution b4 we see that. Certainly industrial demand will weaken somewhat and by how much we dont know. How much of this demand destruction has already been priced in to POO already...too much i would wager. And then there is the speculative element incorporated into the POO. This has evaporated ever since the aforementioned blow-off top in POO, I'll bet my bottom dollar that greed and the pursuit of trading profits has not been extinguished for long, although one hopes that upon its return it will not have as great a distortive influence as in the recent past.
Lets not forget geopolitical risk premiums also may play a part over the next 12 months.
Interesting that OPEC delayed further production cuts until next week. No doubt they will occur b4 years end and will be monitored closely, and in conjunction with other supply side pressures (as you mentioned) I am very confident that we will return to a more pallatable equilibrium.
Northern winter is upon us now = higher demand, I dont think that the northern hemisphereis feeling the pinch that much yet that they arent going to want to heat their homes.
LOL

Following on from your post searching for positives as they relate to AMU
There will be plenty of opportunities to access well priced assets held by distressed/cash strapped companies who's only imperative is to survive at all costs. With AMU's robust/stable cashflows i am sure many opportunities will be put b4 the company.
I think improving global credit outlook and perhaps a round of M & A activity in Oil and Gas stocks next year will be the catalyst for investment in the sector.

Until investment flows return to some form of normalcy AMU just need to continue doing what they do best...Drill and find Oil and Gas, increase assets and reserves and continue to put the story in front of the right players.

300,000 shares traded yesterday only 80,000 picked up in buyback, perhaps the positive coverage is getting some traction...slowly