GuysI don't want to be overly negative, but I think you have...

Guys

I don't want to be overly negative, but I think you have fallen in love with this company and are really under-estimating the impact of the fall in the oil price on AMU's profitability, notwithstanding the hedging (there will be a one-off write back of the hedging loss in the results, but I expect cashflow will be ordinary, particuarly in recent months). You need to re-evaluate your investment decision having regard to the new environment we are in - oil well below $50 for quite some time probably.

The company should be bunkering down and using the cashflow that they do generate to pay down debt, not increase leverage through buying back shares. Before you were saying the shares were cheap to buy back in the 40s, now it is the low 30s. They will get cheaper in my opinion.

The company is not overly geared for normal markets, but we are not in normal markets. The company does have great assets but for now they should be focused on survival. Raising new equity will be all but impossible, buying back existing equity, no matter how cheap on a long term view, is just not sensible in current market conditions.

Good luck. I do think if you hold for the very long term it will be OK, but there is still downside in my view.

I like IMD too, but I also took my medicine and realised a loss, because I think mining and oil and gas sectors are going to under-perform for quite some time. The strong will come out of this downturn stronger and better positioned than ever(China isn't going anywhere) but the weak will not survive.

No more negative posts on AMU from me - time will tell

Just my opinion
Monty