hartleys begins coverage on amadeus buy, page-18

Hi guys
interesting discussion. Thanks Monty for your thoughts, appreciate your stance. Oz thanks for the link to the oil thread.
I guess the decisions we make now depend largely on our views on POO in the medium term and also on investment timelines ie. s/t m/t l/t .
There is much speculation about future movements in POO ranging from US$25bb - US$75bb for 09. Article in AFR w-end edition quoted various analyst estimates
NAB- $45 bb
MLynch - could fall as low as $25 but avge around $50bb
JPMorgan - $68.80 bb
GSJBwere- $75 bb

Most interesting (to me ) were comments by Merrills analyst who said that global consumption of oil should contract by 0.5% in 2009.... but the outlook for economic development will improve after the 1st qtr 09, and prices will trend higher.
If consumption is forecast to fall by a lowly 0.5% it seems to me that a collapse in oil from $150bb- $40 is heavily overdone and speaks to me more of fear than fundamentals.

I certainly wouldnt suggest anyone bet the farm on any investment atm but for l/t holders current sp represents a rare opportunity IMO to top up holdings or for bargain hunters to take a position to perhaps build on. Alot depends on view of macro.

below i have pasted a snippet from an article by peter schiffer (whom i have great respect for)

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/12/03/ap5775256.html


Q: What do you see happening with oil prices now that they've fallen $100 a barrel from their peak last July to under $50?

A: This pullback is an incredible buying opportunity for oil company stocks. Oil prices are going to be much, much higher as a result of this huge plunge, because this big drop is going to put on the back burner for years any alternative plans, any big exploration plans. Because when oil is back above $100 a barrel next year, nobody is going to want to spend any money on oil exploration because they're all going to be afraid of another major collapse. That'll give OPEC another three or four years of $150, $200-a-barrel oil where no one is doing anything about it. OPEC is probably loving this price decline, because they know it's laying the foundation for a bigger price increase down the line.

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