Thanks Mont, It is a little surprising given the current...

Thanks Mont,

It is a little surprising given the current situation for poo and the bleak shorter term outlook that they haven't decided to cut back a little on exploration. Especially the higher risk stuff to conserve a little more capital in these trying times given the uncertain future. The november report for the high risk exploration wasn't great.
Saying that though it gives me confidence that they are happy with their position and cash flow to continue on their merry exploration way.
Just some quick figures on AMU valuation and why I think it will bounce back hard when things improve. As of July 1 2008 the 1P reserves were valued at US$277 with average poo at US$111. Since then poo has slid 65%. Gas not so much but if you work with the oil it's more conservative estimate. Taking into account exchange rates and the slide in poo I still come up with a valuation for AMU of AUD$149 mil. Current market cap 60mil. Obviously means nothing in this market but since then 1P reserves must of been added to and what about 2P. Irrelevant maybe. It's interesting Peter Lehle buying a few yesterday but just goes to show how no one, not even those at the pointy end of this business know where the poo is heading. He paid average 35cents , yesterday could of got them for 30cents, Monday they will be cheaper again no doubt. Directors don't always get it right but on average it's a fair bet they will. It wasn't a huge amount but neverthteless a vote of confidence in this market and I think last time Towner bought they were 50 odd cents. Just my opinion but I think when AMU finsih taking 10% off the shelf and the sellers dry up these will be tightly held and the recovery will be swift.