CVN 6.45% 16.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

I assume you're responding to me?Basis as follows:General...

  1. 349 Posts.
    I assume you're responding to me?

    Basis as follows:

    General Assumptions:
    Shares on Issue (fully diluted): 705,000,000
    Operating Cost: US$12/bbl
    Thai Royalties: 50% of Gross Revenue
    P/E: 20
    Exchange Rate: $0.90

    Case 1
    POO: US$60/bbl
    BOPD: 2,500 (net cvn)
    BOPA: 912,000
    Gross Revenue: US$54,750,000
    Operating Cost: US$10,950,000
    Thai Royalty: US$27,375,000
    EBIT: US$16,425,000
    Implied Value: AUD$365,000,000
    Implied SP (fully diluted): 0.5177

    Case 2
    POO: US$60/bbl
    BOPD: 3,000 (net cvn)
    BOPA: 1,095,000
    Gross Revenue: US$65,700,000
    Operating Cost: US$13,140,000
    Thai Royalty: US$32,850,000
    EBIT: US$19,710,000
    Implied Value: AUD$438,000,000
    Implied SP (fully diluted): 0.6213

    Case 3
    POO: US$80/bbl
    BOPD: 2,500 (net cvn)
    BOPA: 912,000
    Gross Revenue: US$73,000,000
    Operating Cost: US$10,950,000
    Thai Royalty: US$36,500,000
    EBIT: US$25,550,000
    Implied Value: AUD$567,778,000
    Implied SP (fully diluted): 0.8054

    Case 4
    POO: US$80/bbl
    BOPD: 3,000 (net cvn)
    BOPA: 1,095,000
    Gross Revenue: US$87,600,000
    Operating Cost: US$13,140,000
    Thai Royalty: US$43,800,000
    EBIT: US$30,660,000
    Implied Value: AUD$681,333,000
    Implied SP (fully diluted): 0.9664

    Take your pick?

    cheers
    neo
 
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