hartleys report, page-11

Trading analysis from the 14th (day of upgrade)
Shows that apart from the large crossing which was done by UBS
Once again commsec and e-trade dominate the balance.

That shows me that the "top 20" is very tight and the movement is coming from retail investors with a couple of hundred thousand.

My take is that it sold off because the small investor had built up expectations of a much larger upgrade. Figures up 300% increase were discussed on here.

I told you to expect something around 150Bcf 2p. and that's almost what we got.

Also stop expecting miracles from DP. DP doesn't run the show. Perry Gilstrap does. DP is not in a typical CEO role. That's my take anyway.


Lastly, RFE have awesome cost control compared to most juniors. Since IPO they have losses of around $13m. Meaning they have only spent $13m of shareholder cash getting this to where it is today. That's fantastic. Perhaps by the time they reach profitability it might be closer to $20m, but heck if your asset is worth $500m+ that is a great result.

Joewolf

RFE always has been and always will be an asset play.
Build the reserve, stick down some wells to hold the acreage, increase revenue as much as possible. Tender out the acreage for sale once the reserve is built. I really can't understand why they just don't come out and say that is the plan.
Unless the gas price suddenly went back to $12.00. RFE will never drill 1000+ wells.

The risks to this scenario are:
a) Gas price collapses - unlikely
b) RFE can't increase reserves further - unlikely
c) RFE runs out of cash and is forced to dilute holders - possible but not for 9 months.

There you have it.
In 12 months
If gas prices are say $6 and RFE have increased reserves again at EOK then they will be in a position to look for a bidder.

That is what the top 20 know and that is why the top 20 hold. We are here for a 5-7 bagger and if in 2 years we got it wrong and rfe is 10c. That's life. Move on. You can have reward without risk.

Good Luck with your decision