hartley's report, page-43

@Edutain

I feel your pain.

Investing in spec stocks is obviously a high risk/high reward enterprise, so you need some skills in order to help you load up your basket correctly. And in order to stop your basket overbalancing you have to know when it's time to empty it out. This requires a modicum of fundamental and TA skills, used together and in harmony. Time is the enemy of the spec stock investor (jmo) so you don't want to be sitting on a dog (or a pack of dogs) for years while you wait for your number to come up...because it may never do so. So if I were in your position, this is what I would do.

1. Learn the basics of TA. To do this you need to get off HC and hit the text books. Get the CD from Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodies and read all the articles from volume one to the present day. Read about trend following methods, volume analysis, Fibonacci levels, Elliott Wave, risk assessment, when to sell methods and stock charting patterns. It's all out there. Takes lots and lots and lots of time, but should be worth it a few years down the track. Check out the Elite Trader forum on the web. Read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - a must. After doing all of that the stock market may become just a little easier to decipher.

2. I'd sell some of my FML, and buy a few small positions - say $2000 a pop - in some reasonable mid-tier gold producers, such as Regis, Alacer (I hold a few) and maybe Resolute. They may not be multi-baggers but they should hold up reasonably well in the medium term and are currently the best performers on the ASX Gold Index. The above-mentioned 3 goldies are doing much better right now than NCM btw. Medusa is a very high margin producer which is under a bit of a cloud right now, but they do pay a (small) dividend and their Elliott Wave chart suggests that they are due for a move to the upside (jmo - I don't hold) Worth watching them to see what they do in the short term to medium term.

3. If you really want to speculate and run a big risk of making/losing more money then follow the smartie tipsters on HC. They are often up themselves but sometimes come up with good leads. When they do come up with something that looks promising, do the fundamental analysis and look at the relevant charts that you have constructed. After that you decide whether to make a play. Because buying and selling specs is just a form of sophisticated gambling when all is said and done.

I reckon that FML should still be a goer if the gold price continues to rise. My prediction in 2005 was a gold price within the $1500 - 4000 range. Now I reckon that that was a conservative estimate. LINK

Good luck with your investments