hartleys versus focus guidance

Hi Folks,

Just wondering if anyone has compared the Hartleys Financial Forecast for FY11 with the published half year profit guidance from Focus.

Last Page of Hartleys report with full year FY11 data on the left and focus half year results in brackets and % of "Hartleys" yearly forecast achieved

Revenue 138.3M (half year from focus 48.9M - 35.4%)
EBITDA 46.0M (14.6M - 31.7%)
Pre Tax Profit 33.7M (6.2M - 18.4%)

Now, Focus reports production based on Calendar years. We were near 80,000 in 2010 and 100,000 is forecast in 2011. We should then assume that around 90,000 for FY11 would be expected. Hartleys in fact predict 93,000 (last page of report), so lets run with that as the basis for calcs.

Half Year FY11 Focus has produced 36,339 OZ. That is 39.1% of the total FY11 forecast (93,000 approx). This would mean that at their current rate of 35.4% for revenue, 31.7% for EBITDA and 18.4% Pre Tax Profit, they are behind the 8 ball.

I also realise that head grade, production costs etc... can impact positively (or negatively), the EBITDA and Pre Tax Profit even if the revenue target is not achieved. I also understand that Hartleys did the forecast and not Focus!!!

I wonder if Harleys valuation would have been different had it been published post the half year profit guidance as it now seems that their forecasts are looking a little shaky and tough to achieve.

any comments fellow holders?