Harvest One Share Price, page-2109

Scouring reddit and finding some interesting posts, some people doing their research and offering good takes, thought I would put this here, not my work, its from reddit but gives a good pic of HVT currently.

Harvest One HVT Napkin Math, September 2018



An update to the last glorious napkin math, it was a good one.
Currently Harvest One has 1,000kg/yr production with their Duncan facility. Duncan is expected to expand with the following timelines.
Edit: Duncan expansion plans changed and we have not been updated, last note was an expansion of 15,000 square feet to be done, I've removed Duncan expansion plans from my calculation.
Their second location, Lucky Lake in Saskatchewan, is expecting the ACMPR license anytime before 2019, and will produce 12,000kg/yr starting 2019.
Their third location, Aldergrove in BC, is expected to be producing 8,000kg/yr starting 2019.
This gives a Jan 1st 2019 starting production of 20,000kg/yr as per plans.
Their management commentary on last financials states a firm commitment of 20,000kg/yr starting 2019.
Calculations There are 225,278,084 shares fully diluted (as of July 1st) looking at $0.90/share as of today. We are expecting a profit $2.50/gram sold, and the P/E ratio of 20 is commonly realistic and conservative, although much higher is not unheard of or unexpected in this market.
Edit: I reduced profit per gram down to $1.5.
Start of 2019 – The Commitment By HVT 20,000,000 grams * 1.5g/profit = $30,000,000 / 225,278,084 fully diluted shares =$0.13
P/E 15= $1.99/share P/E 20= $2.66/share P/E 30 = $3.99/share
Their BC outdoor location has approximately 400 acres of farm land and is expected to be a viable production source for 2019. There is no specific KG production value, but they have stated their total product by the end of 2019 to be approximately 75,000kg/yr. They expect an initial growing area of approximately 140 acres.
We can assume the profit per gram would be lower on the outdoor crop, due to the end product being used for different means of consumption. This may be used or sold as dry flower to be turned into oil.
I've reduced the profit per gram to reflect this, and possibly market supply at the time of sales. This is overly conservative on many counts.
End of 2019 75,000,000 grams * $1g/profit = $75,000,000 / 225,278,084 =$0.33
P/E 15 = $4.90/share P/E 20 = $6.65/share P/E 30 = $9.98/share
The Harvest One Factor

• This does not include sales from Satipharm, they are waiting for Canadian approval to sell the gelpills in Canada.
• This does not include Dream Water net profit, only the dilution from acquiring them
• This does not include dilution pending from acquiring Phytotech from MMJ

There have been changes in their plans and expansions, although they state this has not changed their timelines for completion.
At the end of the day, Harvest One is 100% execution risk. ~$50 million cash on hand, no debt
Each news release that comes out with them obtaining sales approval, or expansion completion at each facility will bump this stock up massively.
Final thought, calculations are per annual production capacity, actual production may vary in yield and harvest.
In conclusion, conservatively where I can, this stock is way undervalued even based on potential and current market cap. Anywhere you see improvements please add so I can change things.
I've been in this since October 2017, have sold and re-entered several times, but now hold for the sake of the long term potential.