The issue is that the company has told us (on 12 May 2020) that it would lodge within 1 month (what happened to that?!) and that it would take several months to get approved once lodged. Click here for Ann.
That means several months from now at least in my opinion. This pushes everything back.
I have done a revised Gantt chart attached showing my reasonings and conclusions and why FID is not likely to occur until Q4 20201 in my view.
Finance agreements can be put in place ahead of the mining permit being granted, of course, BUT FID itself cannot occur until mining permits granted. AVZ cannot spend project finance until FID. It has said it wants to pay for the 15% out of project finance. Can you now see what I see? A cap raise $30M is coming in my opinion, to pay for the 15% and improve the balance sheet.
And I for one found Leonard's response to the cap raise question at the AGM less than satisfactory.
Just a side note:
Does AVZ have any analyst coverage right now? I don't think it does. If this is the case, doesn't this say something? (Just like poor institutional support?) The only reason I take the risk on AVZ from time to time is I have to do my own research and understand how it trades and know which company statements to disregard.
If you want to shrug off an apparent 6-month delay in lodging the application for the mining permit, that's your prerogative. But I for one can see how it is likely to push FID back considerably.
(20min delay)