Has Andrew Forrest's green hydrogen dream evaporated?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-21/green-hydrogen-forrest-fortescue/104120492

By chief business correspondent Ian Verrender

Posted Sun 21 Jul 2024 at 2:58amSunday 21 Jul 2024 at 2:58am, updated Sun 21 Jul 2024 at 3:06amSunday 21 Jul 2024 at 3:06am

Andrew Forrest's unstoppable drive has built an empire, but the economics of hydrogen production are proving to be one of the toughest battles he's faced.(AAP: Matt Jelonek)

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Even for the most begrudging, it's difficult, at least on some level, not to admire Andrew Forrest.

The indefatigable defiance, boundless energy and enthusiasm, combined with an unwillingness to concede defeat, have helped him build a business empire almost from scratch.

No setback has ever been too great — at least, not in public.

The smiling visage and matey good humour have always been employed to maximum benefit.

Along the way, and despite some cynicism around his motives, he's drummed up global support for battling modern slavery, brought the leaders of some of the world's biggest religions together to thrash out their differences and established a range of charities.

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Few remember the failures — especially the debacle surrounding his first major corporate outing, Anaconda Nickel, during the 1990s — and the personal battles he fought attempting to overcome the stigma.

Now, he's facing troubles on his most recent adventure: his enormous bet on the future of clean energy and, in particular, hydrogen.

In the past week, he's been forced to dramatically scale back his ambitions, unveiling a plan to sack up to 700 workers and postpone the ambitious 15 million tonne target he'd set for hydrogen fuel production by the end of the decade.

It's a measure that sent waves of concerns through the halls of power in Canberra after the Albanese government's recent push to create a hydrogen hub in Western Australia's Pilbara.

Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest says fossil fuel bosses dismissing calls for phase-outs are "selfish beyond belief".

It also runs counter to years of rhetoric and the high-profile war of words with rival entrepreneurs such as Tesla founder Elon Musk.

This time last year, Forrest stood on stage at a conference in Morocco and stunned attendees with a colourful dressing down of the electric car pioneer.

"Anyone, including Elon, including, you know, whoever you like, who says hydrogen hasn't got a massive future, are muppets."

In typical fashion, Forrest hasn't conceded in his sudden about turn.

Fortescue insists it remains committed to a green technology vision.(Sarah Ferguson)

As he explained to Sarah Ferguson on 730 this week, the blame could be sheeted home to Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, which sent power prices surging.

Elsewhere, through the day, he put it more succinctly.

"We need lower power prices, hydrogen is directly a function of the electricity cost.

"If the electricity cost is high, then we can't make hydrogen cheaply enough to compete with fossil fuels."

There is just one problem with his argument.

While he is correct that you need low electricity prices to economically produce hydrogen fuel, green hydrogen, by definition, should be unaffected by the soaring cost of fossil fuels, particularly in the long term.

What went wrong?

Not everyone is unhappy with the backflip.

FMG investors and analysts have long been concerned about the extent and speed to which the company has expanded into renewable energy and the overlapping connections with Forrest's private ventures.

Since late January, when FMG's share price hit a record just shy of $30, it has shed almost one-third its value.

And for much of the past year, the company's senior management ranks have been a revolving door with senior staff and directors coming and going at dizzying speed.

There are two major problems plaguing the company's ambitious plunge into hydrogen fuel.

The most obvious is that hydrogen is prohibitively costly to produce, which means it has difficulty competing with fossil fuels.

And the second is that Fortescue's plunge into renewables (more than 100 wind, solar and hydrogen projects around the world) has ultimately been funded by good, old-fashioned iron ore.

The vast shiploads of red dirt from Western Australia's Pilbara have provided rivers of cash for Forrest's company, Australia's third-biggest iron ore producer.

But iron ore prices have dropped almost 40 per cent since the start of the year.

That's primarily due to the woes that have beset China's economy.

Its property sector is in meltdown, growth is slowing and Beijing appears reluctant to once again spray around the stimulus cash.

Whenever this has happened in the past, it has been Fortescue's enormous debt burden that put it under pressure.

While it still has large borrowings, this time around, it is the spending commitments on its energy division that are adding to the pressure and the inevitability that it would once again need to take on huge debt to succeed.

Batteries 1, Hydrogen 0

There are some simple dynamics working against hydrogen as a fuel.

It might be more efficient than petrol but it doesn't rate against a battery-driven vehicle.

When it comes to batteries, roughly 70 per cent of the original energy produced at the source performs useful work in the vehicle.

With hydrogen, that drops to between 25 per cent and 30 per cent, while internal combustion engines at best deliver 20 per cent efficiency.

That means the solar, hydro, and wind farms need to deliver more than double the energy for the same result in a hydrogen car.

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Hydrogen and oxygen form a tight bond, which is why there is so much water in the world. Separating them requires energy and each additional step, such as making fertiliser, requires even more energy.

The pipes and tanks required to transport and store hydrogen are more expensive to build and maintain.

On top of that, the technology around battery construction and performance is improving rapidly, lowering costs and lifting efficiency.

Forrest's decision to concentrate on producing renewable energy and delivering to the grid and perhaps adapting that to producing green steel down the track makes a great deal more sense.

At least for now.

Posted 21 Jul 202421 Jul 2024, updated 21 Jul 2024