Has ASX:NCM reached its peak?, page-13

Hathaway decisions are not ring fenced to Buffett only. The decision to buy gold would have been made by the two guys running the show day to day and probably with Buffetts blessing.

Here's a good article on the why. https://seekingalpha.com/checkout?service_id=mp_1079

Next two charts are ASX banking and RE sectors, which show obviously show both going sideways, whilst the general market is trending up because of tech - a more pronounced contribution in the USA (significantly disproportionate to the total S&P market).

If you look at US banking and RE sectors, its a similar story. Then check their provisions for bad loans. Now overlay months more of these shutdowns and disruptions. The marco picture remains very poor and the industries in the firing line are banking, commericial RE, hospitality and associated, so not great opportunities regardless of how cheap they are.

More likely we are in a rolling insolvency phase with many business's going to the wall and along with them millions more jobs.






Banks have also decided to stop dividends to strengthen balance sheets, because they see whats ahead of them. Its unlikely this will be the end of it, given we have only really started to see chapter 11s in the US. Saving grace is a successful vaccine, and to ensure safety and efficacy takes years normally, so we can still expect months more - they a never a silver bullet.

Now overlay the massive debt problems for the US - now well above 100% of GDP. They can raise yields, because that would increase their interest payments, so interest rates will need to stay low or below negative. They may be forced into yield curve control if the yields start to get out of control, despite the FED suggesting that won't happen. Remember they also said the trillions on money printing wasn't QE!

So long term, NCM and all good quality goldies are a hold IMHO, but likley to be volatile.

The above is not explicity or implicity trading advice, just a couple of birds eye view of the macros.