has the bear market ended ?, page-13

Globalisation and the Internet have dramatically changed the way the world does business. The Dow consists of only 30 stocks. Dow theory, and in particular the transport index have considerably less significance as a predictor for the economy, and even less as a confirmation of the economic cycle. They are just too narrow.

Although I agree higher swing troughs and peaks are bullish, it would be a better guide to compare the S&P (a broad based index) with the NASDAQ (a technology heavy index) to judge the strength of the economy.

FWIW I believe the Dow has more chance of falling 1000 pts than gaining 1000 in the next 6 months. It almost stands to reason that the biggest bull market in history be followed by the biggest bear market. And furthermore when the very symbol of American capitalism and globalism McDONALDS, makes its first corporate loss in its history, then you can say their economy is as SH!T as their McBurgers.