has the nickel price prive bottomed

Thought id start this on the IGO, it may not be a popular topic here but would like to know your comments;

Has the nickel price prive bottomed?

Currently nickel stocks (LME) are ~60kt and still rising, the highest in 5 years, although some small mines have shut the large oxide producers continue to power on, even losing significant cash (MRE, Ravensthorpe). MCR and IGO are trading close to or at cash backing despite being still profitable. Is this pointing to further nickel price falls or uncertainty regarding the forward pon?

The current nickel price is below the cash cost of a significant proportion (don’t have current figures?) of current world nickel production which usually provides a good indication the price has bottomed. However if high cost mines don’t respond fast enough or the supply demand balance is worse than suspected then nickel stocks will continue to rise putting further pressure on the pon and IGO.

Currently pon is above the recent low of ~US$4.20-4.25 which I see now as important support in next few weeks. Ditto the current levels in IGO which could set up a bottom formation.

IGO is my preferred nickel stock on the asx given current cash position, hedging and lowest cost producer (and Tropicana) however with the nickel stockpile pressure ill sit on sidelines for now.