haspete's - another grand on the dow thursday, page-18

pisces

You hit the nail on the head. This is a traders market now that the main rebound off the 2009 lows has happened.

The ASX200 is not going back to 6800 in the next 2-3 years, unless the system can be massively inflated around the world.

Actually 2005 and 2006 were great years for the market. I was hoping it would finally have a blow off top around 8000 and planned to put my super into cash around that level, but had to do it earlier in September 2007. The signs of future problems were there to be seen if one looked, but there seemed to be plenty of time to react. Most shares, even the specs, were very liquid. If you lost on one dog you could easily get your money back on another play. This is not the case now. A bad mistake will really injure people and take a very long time to recover.

There are a few hot sectors left in the spec end which come and go. I think shale gas is a bubble (just like CSG turned out to be in the short/medium term), but perhaps shale oil is not. It would not surprise me to see energy prices fall over time, unless energy taxes are high. Gold may or may not be a bubble, depending on a wide range of macro factors and choices. Tech companies I do not understand so I will leave them alone - probably only good to invest if you are a very good TA trader.

I have no idea how far a pullback will take the markets, but a pullback seems fairly certain in April/May. If I am thinking this then perhaps so are a lot of others who will decide to exit early.

loki (part of the wall of worry)