JGunterLonger term you could be right, at least I hope so as my...

JGunter

Longer term you could be right, at least I hope so as my goldies would benefit.

I am thinking more short term, the next few months. If the US market had a 22% fall like it did last year it would be back to 1097 on the S&P500. If our market does the same from our current low level then the ASX200 would be at 3388. Ouch.

The US Fed may not be in a position to do another QE because of fear that the Republican senate will not allow the re-appointment of its dovish members.

European issues can pop up at any time, and Chinese economic activity including its trade, is slowing. I am not sure what measures the Eurocountries can do in the future. US company earnings growth is slowing, and their profit margins are at an all time high. The Chinese markets still look weak - I wonder why? None of the problems from GFC have been solved - although the US banking system is now stronger than it was back then. At some point in time the market will get spooked again.

I am not expecting a cataclysmic drop, but I think a major pullback starting in April/May is likely. The pricing power of the bulk commodities producers will diminish over time which will hurt the AUD, with the IO price falling a heap.

As the great martis would say, we await developments.

loki