hats off to the mods wednesday, page-5

Well Done - thanks outlandin. Our Mods are special people.

In America:

Dow Industrials +1.02%
Dow Transports +1.56%
SP500 +0.79%
Russell 2000 +0.74%
Nasdaq100 +0.3%

Comment: Something odd happened about 11.40 am (NY time). The markets just took off. It’s unusual to see such a big move in the middle of the day. Not unheard of – just unusual. Such big moves often happen in the first hour or the last hour – but not middle of the day. The rumour mills on Wall Street must have been working overtime. Afternoon saw the Industrials and SPX drift off – Nasdaq100 was down much more sharply, but still finished positively.

NewHighs/NewLows 149/15. NH>NL. The ratio of NH/(NH+NL) is at 90.9%. Back in the Do Not Sell Zone. Those are bullish numbers and washes out the nervousness we’ve been seeing since 19 October.

Technical Comment on the SP500:

The SP500 finished at 1428.39. Support/resistance: 1419/1429.3
MACD Histogram. Above zero. Positive.
MACD. Below zero. Negative.
RSI.9 is at 51.2. Positive
Stochastic. 27.4. Positive.
CCI.14: -6.6. Rising. Needs to get over zero.

Last Thursday, indicators gave a short term buy signal. That’s still in play.
The medium term trend is down. The short term trend is up. Long term trend (from October, 2012) is still up.

The chart, short term, remains within a bear flag. These typically break lower. A break below the lower support line is needed to confirm.

This just doesn’t look like a rebound into a bull rally, not yet. Compare how the chart is acting with previous rebounds. We were seeing strong impulsive moves in the yellow candles. We’re not seeing those (yet) in this bear flag. The 40-Day TMA still looks to me likely to provide the testing ground.

Once again, here’s Nasdaq100 chart after last night:

Still within the down trend channel. The sell-off in the Nazzie after the late morning rush was strong.



Will the Presidential Election affect stocks? The Motley Fool has a break-down of past elections and stock performance:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/11/05/what-stocks-do-after-elections.aspx

Here’s some of their commentary:

"There is no discernible post-election pattern here; we’ve seen everything from big booms to sizable corrections. And there’s little correlation between market performance six months or a year after presidents take office and performance over the course of their administrations. Stocks did poorly soon after president Ford took office, but they did remarkably well later in his term. The same goes for president Reagan.

"As I wrote earlier this year, the vast majority of investment calls based on “Buy these stocks if X wins the election” turn out woefully wrong in hindsight. Some examples are astounding, like advice to buy small-cap stocks if Bill Clinton won in 1996 — just as small caps were about to underperform large caps by half. Or calls to buy solar stocks and avoid Big Oil after president Obama was elected in 2008, just as companies like First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR ) were about to collapse and Big Oil giants like ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM ) were set up for big returns. It is extremely difficult to tie what the stock market will do to who wins a presidential election.

"This is partly because what candidates campaign on is usually vastly different from what they do in office. Elections encourage a habit of overpromising, and opposing Congressional parties can constrain a president’s ambitions. Whatever the reason, we have experienced every combination of Republican and Democrat president, bull market and bear market, that you can think of. People hate to think of the economy as that unpredictable, but it’s the reality. The odds are quite good that the most important business stories of the next five or 10 years will have nothing to do with who wins the election tomorrow."

Redbacka