- PC uses same LT FX price assumption [0.75] as in HAV release dated 18/6/18. LT assumptions: Cu $3/lb (US$6,600/t), Au US$1250/oz [HAV Cu US$6,380/t; Au US$1200/oz]. Co price assumption is not shown.
- PC assumes Kalkaroo production of 35kt pa Cu and 104koz oz Au which is very close to publicly available HAV data [34kt pa Cu & 108koz pa Au].
- PC assumes Kalkaroo capex of $450m which is $100m higher than publicly available HAV data [$350m].
- PC uses a discount rate of 15% [very conservative!] for its NPVs of Kalkaroo & Mutooroo. HAV normally uses 10%.
- PC risk adjusts its NPV for Kalkaroo by 50%.
- PC excludes Cobalt from its NPV for Kalkaroo.
- PC excludes North Portia/ Portia.
- PC excludes Grants/ Maldorky.
- PC excludes Kalkaroo station.
- PC excludes exploration upside.
- PC risked valuation of $220m = $0.92 ps diluted (including options expiring today); not $0.64 ps.
PC's NPV for Kalkaroo is significantly lower than other valuations (NPV, ISV etc). E.g. HAV's own NPV (released 15/2/06) which preceded Cu-Au-Co upgrades was $422m. Presumably, the upcoming PFS will provide more clarity on this.
DYOR
HAV Price at posting:
25.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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