have a little faith

Greetings All,

Amazed is quite correct in saying the show goes on.

Whoever has put this new money into the company is confident of reaping rewards at future higher levels, just like all current holders who believe in the project felt when they bought their holding. However, the road of investment is rarely a smooth ride in start-up enterprises.

I am not impressed that the recent placement was at a lower price than the previous one (not a great confidence builder), however, the current share price is a lot closer to the recent placement than it was for the last placement, which in my opinion should see the sp consolidate around it's current level.

In case any of you have forgotten why you invested in this "dagwood" in the first place, I will take the liberty of reposting here a Blue Griffin summary of the potential future rewards that CCI may bring it's investors.

It is interesting to note that BG has based his calculations on a figure of 1.25 billion fully paid shares, to allow for future capital raisings and the conversion of options and convertible notes.

It's late at night and I don't feel like doing it now, so perhaps someone would like to do the research and additions and post the likely number of fully paids that may be in circulation by October 2007 (and lets assume the sp is above 5 cents by then).



Subject assumption reward tables ...
Posted 10/03/06 15:38 - 223 reads
Posted by Blue Griffin
IP 144.136.xxx.xxx
Post #949892 - start of thread - splitview

Warm greetings to all.
Many thanks to all contributors to this thread, it has been quite exemplary relating to shared fundamental assumptions/opinions & is always appreciated.
: )

For those interested, I thought that I'd throw my hat into the ring with some speculative reward tables reflecting indicative share-price values if all the boxes get ticked.
With-out too much commentary, I would like to simply express aggree-ance that CCI in my view does indeed warrant speculative considerations & we have a position via the options.
It is carrying extremely high levels of risk that has to be emphasized due to the underlying weakness of chrom(ite/ore) fundamentals, (http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/chromium/chrommcs06.pdf).

However, if management can secure niche off-take to the non-metalurgical market, then I believe they may produce without too many ripples being created & that is where the influence(s) & values of AKA (BEE) are paramount.
Brian is highly regarded by peers, has no other corporate obligations to any other listed company & has the motivations of a share-price performance renumeration (via options).
All historical time-lines have been broken, so a disclosure strategy & accountability/adherence will be imperative to regain market confidence/sentiment.
Thanks to forum members, we now have an approximate time-line to assess incrementally the stages necessary to go from point A, (where the company is now), to point B, (company producing relative to assumption paradigms below) to determine personal risk exposure/probability of eventuality.
Lower end p/e more probable than not due to commodity sentiment.

Hope this assists, warm regards to all & good luck in any & all positions.
: )




Nb- Disclosure & sentiment covered in the above.



__________________________________________________
Assumption table #1.

Assume (1) production of 200,000 tpa begins within 6 months.
Assume (2) price received per tonne produced = US$140.
Assume (3) current shares on issue + convertable note + future capital raising = 1,250,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares.
Assume (4) ebitda per tone produced = AU$65, (costs at US$75 = US$48.1pt margin X 74% {project equity} nill allowance for cost over-run + tax).
Assume (5) market applies pe of 5x(a), 8x(b) & 10x(c) because;
i)open pit production is 2.5-4yrs.
ii)underground reserves > 25yrs.
iii)significant scope to increase production 25-50% in year 2, (ie from 200,000t/a - 250,000-300,000t/a).
Assume (6) accrued project tax credit is allowing (5) + (4) validity for year 1.

Therefore;

Assumption reward table #1a.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5a) = 5.2c per f/p.
CCI = 5.2c per f/p.
CCIO = 2.4c (intrinsic + (2.2c = 12 months time value}).


Assumption table #1b.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5b) = 8.3c per f/p.
CCI = 8.3c per f/p.
CCIO = 4.3c (intrinsic + {1c = 12 months time value}).


Assumption table #1c.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5c) = 10.5c per f/p.
CCI = 10.5c per f/p
CCIO = 7c (intrinsic + {0.015 = 12 months time value}).




__________________________________________________________
Assumption table #2.

Assume (1) production of 200,000 tpa begins within 6 months.
Assume (2) price received per tonne produced = US$160.
Assume (3) current shares on issue + convertable note + future capital raising = 1,250,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares.
Assume (4) ebitda per tone produced = AU$85, (costs at US$75pt = US$85pt margin X 74% {project equity} nill allowances for cost over-run or tax).
Assume (5) market applies pe of 5x(a), 8x(b) & 10x(c) because;
i)open pit production is 2.5-4yrs.
ii)underground reserves > 25yrs.
iii)significant scope to increase production 25-50% in year 2, (ie from 200,000t/a - 250,000-300,000t/a).
Assume (6) accrued project tax credit is allowing (5) + (4) validity for year 1.

Therefore;

Assumption reward table #2a.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5a) = 6.8c per f/p.
CCI = 6.8c per f/p.
CCIO = 3.3c (intrinsic + (1.5c = 12 months time value}).


Assumption table #2b.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5b) = 10.88c per f/p.
CCI = 8.3c per f/p.
CCIO = 4.3c (intrinsic + {1c = 12 months time value}).


Assumption table #2c.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5c) = 13.6c per f/p.
CCI = 10.5c per f/p
CCIO = 7c (intrinsic + {0.015 = 12 months time value}).






______________________________________________
Assumption table #3.

Assume (1) production of 200,000 tpa begins within 6 months.
Assume (2) price received per tonne produced = US$175.
Assume (3) current shares on issue + convertable note + future capital raising = 1,250,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares.
Assume (4) ebitda per tone produced = AU$100, (costs at US$75 = US$100pt margin X 74% {project equity} neutral for cost over-run + tax).
Assume (5) market applies pe of 5x(a), 8x(b) & 10x(c) because;
i)open pit production is 2.5-4yrs.
ii)underground reserves > 25yrs.
iii)significant scope to increase production 25-50% in year 2, (ie from 200,000t/a - 250,000-300,000t/a)
Assume (6) accrued project tax credit is allowing (5) + (4) validity for year 1.

Therefore;

Assumption reward table #3a.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5a) = 8c per f/p.
CCI = 8c per f/p.
CCIO = 4c (intrinsic + 0.01 = 12 months time value).


Assumption table #3b.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5b) = 12.8c per f/p.
CCI = 12.8c per f/p
CCIO = 9.3c (intrinsic + 0.015 = 12 months time value).


Assumption table #3c.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5c) = 16c per f/p.
CCI = 16c per f/p
CCIO = 12.5c (intrinsic + 0.015 = 12 months time value).




_______________________________________________
Assumption table #4.

Assume (1) production of 200,000 tpa begins within 6 months.
Assume (2) price received per tonne produced = US$200.
Assume (3) current shares on issue + convertable note + future capital raising = 1,250,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares.
Assume (4) ebitda per tone produced = AU$125, (costs at US$75 = US$125pt margin X 74% {project equity} neutral for cost over-run + tax).
Assume (5) market applies pe of 5x(a), 8x(b) & 10x(c) because;
i)open pit production is 2.5-4yrs.
ii)underground reserves > 25yrs.
iii)significant scope to increase production 25-50% in year 2, (ie from 200,000t/a - 250,000-300,000t/a)
Assume (6) accrued project tax credit is allowing (5) + (4) validity for year 1.

Therefore;

Assumption reward table #4a.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5a) = 10c per f/p.
CCI = 10c per f/p.
CCIO = 6c (intrinsic + 0.01 = 12 months time value).


Assumption table #4b.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5b) = 16c per f/p.
CCI = 16c per f/p
CCIO = 12.5c (intrinsic + 0.015 = 12 months time value).


Assumption table #4c.
(4) multiplied by (1) divided by (3) multiplied by (5c) = 20c per f/p.
CCI = 20c per f/p
CCIO = 16.5c (intrinsic + 0.015 = 12 months time value).