I just don't see a lot of Hype, I see a lot of Facts. Most of the time I would refer Hype as a negative, False hope in a way. If you want to look at a company with negative hype, look into CMY, the whole company is based on hype without results.
I'll say it again, I do NOT believe a successful launch is factored into it, all of the contracts pending a successful launch have been, but not the actual launch into space.
My predictions were bare minimum, yours look like it's the top end of your scale. I'm not sure I even believe them myself, as we are 20 minutes away from closing 5% up today with no news at all, imagine with news...
Anyway, we are both holders, let's just hope for a successful launch and See how the market reacts on D-Day.