The predictions I made three months ago (see first post on this...

The predictions I made three months ago (see first post on this thread), are becoming true.

From GSK's 3Q results:
"Sales of Relenza, GSK’s anti-viral for influenza, were £28 million, down 7%, reflecting lower demand from
governments to stockpile it for use in the event of a flu pandemic."

Relenza's 2Q sales were GBP67mill, so GBP28mill is a massive drop off quarter to quarter. (The 7% figure is relative to Q306).

BTA's FY08 result will be flat to slightly lower over 07, while FY09 will be substantially lower (excluding any one-off profits from litigation).

BTA is going to need a very big litigation payout to get the SP moving. While a big payout is possible, I think a modest payout of $20-25mill (after legal costs) is more likely. Without a big payout, I see the sp slowly declining to the $1.15 level over the medium term.

Having said all this BTA remains a well managed company, with a high quality pipeline. The trouble facing current shareholders is the the value of this pipleline will not be realised until after 2012, so BTA is probably in for a couple of years of below par performance (again, unless there is a big litigation payout).