Well somebody has to address the Elephant in the room.
Apologies to long term holders but the news is being misconstrued and this is my take on where the shipments stand.
ALAM SINAR 15000t TAWANA
Some rampers would try to suggest that this is an additional shipment/new customer and many shareholders would hope that this is the case but simple analysis would confirm to any reasonable person that this is not the case.
It would appear that the Alam Sinar is due at Berth 2 at Esperance on July 31st so giving a day or so to load it will be an August shipment, in fact it is almost certainly THE shipment and not an additional shipment.
International shipping is highly organised and booked weeks/months ahead and as such this can only be the shipment to Jiangte, if it was any other customer then it would have been known at booking scheduling time (weeks ago) and this would have been a very important fact to be disclosed in the Quarterly and it wasn’t. So it will be Jiangte and not a new Japanese/Korean/Martian customer as some would have you believe.
When booking cargo, the ship would be booked for the maximum space of whatever was being considered/or cargo hold capacity (in this case 15kt) and there is no basis to assume anything other than the advised delivery amount will be loaded and as such it will almost certainly be the 10kt mentioned in the quarterly.
While it has been recently demonstrated that Mr Lithium’s capabilities as the head man are somewhat disappointing, he has managed to get a couple a name changes across the line as well as handsomely rewarding himself and keeping numerous consultants well paid and busy, I am sure that he would not allow such a non-disclosure as an imminent delivery to a new customer to be left out of a Quarterly that was so bad it would decimate the share price..
At this stage it is still likely (but no certainty) that the 10kt will be shipped. The ship would have been booked weeks ago and a few days ago the Quarterly mentioned a delay obtaining the LC. The presence of the ship does not guarantee that the LC has been forthcoming. The LC might fall through and if so somebody will be paying for an empty cargo hold or it may come through in time and then the shipment will progress.
The only way to be sure that the LC has come through is for the ship to be loaded.
As regards the speculation on the next shipment (if there is one) it has to be some weeks away at the earliest and maybe much longer.
International cargo ships are not waiting for a fare whilst parked outside Esperance Port, they are not like Ubers pretty much wherever/whenever you need them. The absence of any statement on new deliveries/customers in the Quarterly means that no ships were booked or scheduled at that time and even if an order was placed tomorrow it will be some weeks to delivery.
Cash flow is at critical levels, you can’t pay your employees or suppliers with Spodumene.
Though times for the juniors (all of them), you need big knackers to be buying any of them at the moment.
I have said my piece and will go back to lurking know unless of course my post is attacked and I need to clarify further.
Cheers
Newbie Thomas
A40 Price at posting:
8.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
