Disclaimer: Some of this post is just mindless ramblings about myself so if you don't want to read this kind of nonsense, my pre-emptive advice would be... please read it all in detail just so you can post about how long it took you to read in detail and what a waste of time that was. Either that or just put me on your ignore list.
"Proof ... I value your inputs of sound fundamental analysis and enquiries, which helps me considerably since I dont have the time, though I have found that over-evaluating a company can sometimes be counterproductive."
Hey Icred, thanks for stirring up some activity in TMR forum land again. Glad to have you on board, now that you actually hold. Are you an investor or a trader with this one mate?
I try to only post things I think to be correct but as you have probably seen posted on the CFE thread, I believe I am logical and do well in tests'n'stuff but I have only been interested in the market since Jan of this year, and so I am probably not someone to be trusted. I just wanted to reiterate how new I am to the stockmarket and will make more of an effort not to hide my ignorance in future as I believe in transparency in many facets of life. I have updated my sig now so this'll be the last time I will have to offer this disclaimer. In response to your overevaluation comment, there are other fields I am passionate about that I do feel I understand very well and would feel I have the right to give advice in (read:tell people how to do things ha ha), but investing is definitely not one of them. Why does this relate to your overevaluation comment? Well, just as I believe in complete transparency I also believe to do something properly you need complete understanding. I believe you can never do something properly until you understand every facet of how everything works, and I do not believe my understanding or knowledge of TMR is therefore anywhere near sufficient personally. At the moment I am just getting a rough shape and chucking a dart at it through basic logic. This is also why I have disliked TMR's confessions of trying too hard to overachieve rather than doing things properly with complete understanding in the first place. Hopefully they have learnt their lesson however and I do appreciate their candour. I believe them to be quite intelligent. Personally though I am just not willing to sacrifice the time and effort required to be knowledgable enough in the stockmarket to be competent. It is not my passion. I am writing something at the moment but it is a long project so sometimes I wander over to HC where I receive immediate responses to writing. Also, it is good practice for my writing.
Is anyone still with me? Anyway, I don't know what is going on because posters actually got me to do some research on mining tonight. If I am not careful I might actually know something about it soon.
"To get $40mill EBIT TMR needs to make nearly $1.50 per pound of contained copper. If they reach the targeted costs in early 09 and copper stays about where it is now then they'll probably get there. They don't receive the LME copper price for their product because the product is concentrate not metal. It has to be refined. Approximate costs for this were posted by (from memory) Paul100 2-3 months ago. From memory I think the company would likely receive 85% of the copper price but that is from memory."
WNG, I took this issue to be already resolved in the thread with P100. Excuse me if I am wrong but my understanding is (and I have done a little research on this one), TMR sells copper concentrate but they incorporate the refining costs et al in the C1 payable copper costs. This allows us to easily view the difference and hence the profit when the figure of the sales price of copper is mentioned, such as $3.50. If we then had to incorporate another undisplayed cost between these figures this would seem illogical to me that such a figure would not be disclosed OR the price of concentrate sale would not be displayed. To be honest I am a little unsure how this works so please correct me if I am mistaken anyone.
Icred: what was the other share you basing those calculations on? And yes, I am aware you follow the CFE thread... I became aware when... you POSTED on it! Please increase or decrease your meds, whatever will yield the best results (and by results I do not mean buzz) ha ha. And nope, that wasn't me and nope, I don't watch Stargate. I love Firefly though and used to watch MacGyver when I was a little kid lol. MacGyver coulda lowered cash costs with a paper clip and an ordinary ball point pen, I tell you what.
"Copper going up - TMR going down Oil going up - ROC going down Crazy time. We have to wait until some reasoning comes to the market."-Newjo
Agreed, was actually considering buying into the company ROC is looking to take over. Also, however, as my own little ammendum:
Oil going up - Everything else going down, down, down...
Personally I unfortunately do not envisage TMR's cash costs to reduce substantially this quarterly despite the improved grades in large part due to the increasing price of oil and any other fuel.
"I also suspect many of the 7,500 on the TMR register do not have much idea what the company does or has or what it is really worth...it was just a bet for them which has gone badly for them...so they want out at any price as they need the cash to pay the next round of bills"-ABN
This is an interesting theory and something I would be inclined to agree with. From some of the things I have talked to people investing in shares and also seen posted on this website, some quite basic concepts I have found to be misunderstood and would not be surprised if many do-it-yourself investors understood even less than my admittedly limited knowledge.
"Buffet once said something like " The stock market is efficient in transferring wealth from those that dont have a clue to those that do""
Icred (again ha ha), I think in this quote it was patience he referred to :) Either that or it was transferrring wealth from those without directing positions to those with,
And finally...
YAHOO TMR TO 100 BUCKS HERE WE GO!!!
TMR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)