NCM 0.00% $23.35 newcrest mining limited

Hi rollacoaster,The initial mining rate will be defined by the...

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    Hi rollacoaster,

    The initial mining rate will be defined by the limitations of the decline which is currently being constructed to the ore-body. The analysts that follow GGP here in the UK (and the company itself) believe that 3mtpa is the limit of what they can truck up the decline. To go to higher rates would probably involve the construction of a dedicated conveyor decline. Trucking 3mtpa the 45km to Telfer is no mean feat either even using the road-trains that you guys employ in WA, so again to go to the much higher quantities that Telfer needs they would probably need to construct an overland conveyor or a dedicated rail line.

    The other issue that 3mtpa gives Telfer is that it is nowhere near the capacity that the 10mtpa train needs to run at it's optimum albeit the grades will be much higher than the dirt they are putting through there now.

    Newcrest themselves have stated that the FS due in the December quarter will have initial investigations into other lower cost mining methods (read bulk mining here) of the other areas that aren't considered in the PFS. ( I included the tweet above in this post but for some reason HC decided to post it separately). You can see from my tweet that the Northern breccia, NW Pod and Eastern Breccia all have the potential to come together at depth and make this into one giant bulk mine - the only bit considered in the PFS was the SE crescent (coloured in pink).

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4267/4267806-3143c03292b33e4c623e9c24bfeb66db.jpg
    I have been following GGP since about 2017 and the development of Havieron ever since the initial surveying and drill testing since 2018 and IMO to just dismiss it as a short term high grade crutch for Telfer in a bit short-sighted.

    I have no axe to grind or agenda with NCM - whatever is good for Havieron is ultimately good for both NCM & GGP. If NCM decide at some point that they want 100% of Havieron all to themselves then I would be taking my profits from GGP and investing a chunk of them here for sure - I like the way the company have grown their asset base and with the opportunity to be such a low cost producer I think the future here is very rosy.

    GLA and have a great Easter weekend - Paddy
 
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