having read some of the shiite .., page-16

CK,
Great reply. A simple system applied to a select few stocks. I have used quarterly cashflow reports on companies such as BDL to predict next quarter results based on curent margins to predict where they can be next quarter or in 12 months. ASX stocks required to report quarterly provide some very good recovery situations & the trends in the spreadsheet don't lie. These companies are required to report quarterly due to their pass history/cash position.
What filters do you use to identify your select few stocks? ROCE or free cashflow per shares? Do you use a system program like Fox Trader to filter or just sim the AFR on Mondays for the like of CBA then do you detailed research?
I have always liked a fundamental approach to valuation but am currently investing these companies making trend breakouts combined with say 25% trailing stop loss updated in say a spreadsheet. I believe it is possible to find a WOW /CBA value company & it may be sometime before the price breakout occurs i.e. making new highs. This I believe provides the entry point for a quicker takeoff in share price & share returns.
25 % trailing stop loss gives room for fluctuations but would provide an exit if trend breaks down. I know in some situations it could cause an early exit to a winner but many good companies only rarely go near this point & if they do it may be time for a change to a new mover. Most exits would be generated after a 12 months period so a benefit regarding CGT. In a superfund not really such a big issue.
Regards
Buffett