On form Swans just. Had a few lucky results due for a loss. But betting suggests not this week. I hope they keep winning , should be exciting whatever the result.
Six weeks into the season, when these clubs had one win between them, scheduling two Friday night clashes between them seemed a dud decision. Now, we’re blessed. The Hawks won a thriller at the SCG in round 10 by a goal and are the only team to beat the Swans in their last 11 matches. Hawthorn won last time basically by playing keepings off; it controlled the ball for large stages and dominated possession and not even a great performance from Lance Franklin was enough to get the Swans home. The Hawks are playing well enough to stage a repeat performance on Friday night, with a backline and midfield that has improved markedly in the past six weeks. Without question, the Swans have been super, but in such an even season, they’re due to drop one soon. This might be it.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Friday, July 28, 7.50pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
LAST FIVE MEETINGSR10, 2017, Hawthorn 12.9 (81) d Sydney 11.9 (75) at the SCG
R17, 2016, Hawthorn 11.9 (75) d Sydney 10.10 (70) at the SCG
R9, 2016, Sydney 10.9 (69) d Hawthorn 7.13 (55) at the MCG
R16, 2015, Hawthorn 23.8 (146) d Sydney 7.15 (57) at ANZ Stadium
R8, 2015, Sydney 11.7 (73) d Hawthorn 9.15 (69) at the MCG
THE SIX POINTS1. In round 10 the Hawks led by 21 points at half-time, the margin was reduced to five points by three-quarter time before Hawthorn held on. Hawthorn dominated disposals with 408-330 and uncontested possessions 283-183.
2. The Hawks' uncontested possession game is back, now ranked fifth averaging 255.8 per game compared to the Swans ranked 13th at an average of 224.9.
3. Hawthorn has had the better of Sydney in recent seasons winning five of the last eight contests but there have been some close finishes with six decided by less than 20 points.
4. Contested marking could be an advantage for the Swans ranked sixth averaging 12.1, well ahead of the Hawks in 14th with an average of 9.9.
5. In the Hawks' favour is their record over the Swans at the MCG, winning 10 games to seven but the Swans have won the last two in 2015 and 2016. Sydney is two wins from three games at the MCG in 2017.
6. Swans forward Will Hayward is the 10th-ranked first year player and the 531st overall in the Schick AFL Player Ratings.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Daniel HoweThe third-year Hawk has claimed some huge scalps as a run-with midfielder in 2017 and faces another huge task on Friday night, most likely against 200-gamer (and fellow Xavier College alumnus) Josh Kennedy.
PREDICTION: Hawthorn by 10 points
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