No worries DC. Don't take it personally, but it seems like the only thing holding you back from rebuying CAP, is the fact that the next guy in the line doesn't want it either. If the market didn't perceive it to be a problem, then you wouldn't either. In other words, if the share price didn't drop 50% in 6 months, you wouldn't think of it as that big a problem. Correct?
In that case, I think Buffet's words hold true. Buy when others are fearful. CAP is a value play. There is value here, immense value. The above spreadsheet denotes the value, plus we have a fully stemmed coal project in the Galilee worth more than our current market cap alone in my opinion.
Ask yourself, how much damage can Hillam really do to CAP? We are ready to kick start a BFS within a month if I'm not mistaken, and prior to the May 2012 cut off, we won't be doing much more than that at Hawsons. Hillam can't hurt us anymore. The JV is nigh on a write off, and I bet my bottom dollar that Nick is readying the company to move forward at Hawsons without Hillam slowing things down.
Without BMG, Hawsons to CAP is no worse a prospect than Central Eyre to IRD; in fact today's numbers show that Hawsons is indeed the more valuable project.
Hillam will be long gone within the next year; by court rulings or by JV arrangements, it doesn't matter.
In lieu of this, it goes without saying that the time to buy is right now, provided the world's markets stay in tact, but that discussion can be saved for another day.
CAP Price at posting:
38.6¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
