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iSplicer's Trading Blog!HotCopper Hilarity Vol. 3
Posted: February 27th, 2012 | Author: isplicer | Filed under: Uncategorized | No Comments »



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Julia wins, market tanks.
Posted: February 27th, 2012 | Author: isplicer | Filed under: Uncategorized | No Comments »
Julia smashes Kevin in the Caucus ballot held deep within Labor’s stone chambers where they plan Australia’s economic destruction with consistent and potent fervour.


I was personally hoping the backstabbing ranga would be replaced by an equally incompetent prime minister whose promotion to PM would atleast serve to highlight the internal power struggles that the labor party faces.

Perhaps even an election was on the cards. The market knew this. It knew the ridiculous carbon tax and MRRT (30% tax on iron and coal mines) would come under some sort of risk if a wayward result were to eventuate. And thus it sold off when parliament decided to continue on its merry way of destroying the only sector that’s keeping this country’s economy from imploding.

There’s a reason our market’s underperforming the Dow, the FTSE, the Hang seng, etc. It’s because foreign investment is leaving our shores en masse – any rapid change in global risk-asset sentiment is being met with aggressive selling pressure in Australia. Global hedgefunds simply don’t wish to hold Australian resource stocks when they are being heavily taxed to fund ridiculous projects like the NBN and to pay bludgers on the dole. And so life will go on for them as they invest in other countries whose leaders actually care about the country they’re leading. Fair enough.






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Thanks for the emails!
Posted: February 27th, 2012 | Author: isplicer | Filed under: Uncategorized | No Comments »
I’ve been getting a bunch of emails every other day from traders wanting to share ideas and thoughts.

This is just an open message to everyone that I’m completely open to the idea of getting to know some of you out there! To everyone that’s emailed me already – thanks a lot, I look forward to keeping in touch over our respective trading journeys. I find that correlation and collusion are a great way to get your ideas cross-checked by someone else and to also gain new ideas. So if you haven’t already, email me! [email protected]

You can also check out and follow my twitter page (in the sidebar) =]


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HotCopper Hilarity Vol. 2
Posted: February 26th, 2012 | Author: isplicer | Filed under: Uncategorized | No Comments »
Oh god, this just keeps getting better or better.




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HotCopper Hilarity Vol. 1
Posted: February 25th, 2012 | Author: isplicer | Filed under: Uncategorized | No Comments »
If the presence of ’traders’ who can barely put a sentence together isn’t a sign of opportunity on the markets, I honestly don’t know what is.







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MQG/SAR Charts.
Posted: February 25th, 2012 | Author: isplicer | Filed under: Uncategorized | No Comments »
Coming soon…


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Thoughts on that OST trade.
Posted: February 23rd, 2012 | Author: isplicer | Filed under: Uncategorized | No Comments »
First things first, I should’ve held on to OST, no doubt about it.

Whilst I can’t help feeling a bit frustrated selling out at 90c after getting in at 75c, a profit is a profit. It was a leveraged position with a tight stop so the profit was all the more sexy. Whilst I don’t regret taking profits where I did, I I do, however, regret not scaling out of the position with a bit more tact. I was aware that a huge short covering spree was on the cards, and I posted this on facebook on Tuesday, before the monster rally really got going:

We could potentially see the mother of all short-covering rallies in OST (0.27% of issued capital shorted, a ridiculous number compared to even the likes of FMG and MYR!) Got in at 75c and yet I’m willing to hold given the P/E of 5~ in light of a cash flow statement that surprised to the upside.

I think some serious capital appreciation is on the cards given that the interventionists (from the US, Eurozone and now even China! – with their central bank easing restrictions on lending) will do basically anything to pump the equity markets. A China hard landing seems to have been priced into the Shanghai composite, so there’s that upside there too if Chinese growth collapses to something like 8.5%. Worse comes to worst you get the dividends.

Personally I’ll be bagging profits at 90c (HOPEFULLY!), but just a heads up for LT investors that if we see this sector pick up $1.50-$2 could be on the cards.

I was completely aware that once the price had breached 88c, a very sharp move was on the cards, which is why in hindsight I’m a little disappointed. In the past I’ve been disappointed for being too greedy, and now the market shows the extent of her cruelty by punishing a trader for being too careful/conservative. I should have scaled out of the position by selling half of my holdings and adjusting my stop-loss to breakeven. There’s nothing like a free option in trading where the worst scenario results in no money lost. Lesson learnt, time to move on. After all, this trade could’ve ended up like the RIO one, where it sharply moved against me right after I closed the position.

I’ve been spending the entire day thinking about how to spend the profits from that trade, and that’s helped me feel considerably better!

If you pull up a daily chart of OST, the spectacularly aggressive buying pressure that has eventuated over the past few days is because of short covering. Those massive, massive green bars that have smashed through multiple resistance levels are a picturesque representation of shorters getting annihilated as they scramble to exit. This is why I’m reluctant to hold on to OST for very long (even though I did mention in the above facebook post that LT investors could buy in with a target of $1.50 plainly due to the obvious sector re-rating), I have no idea when the big boys have distributed enough and are ready to start shorting the daylights out of it again.

The financial report exceeded expecations, yes, but OST still has a debt of 3B+ with a market cap of far less than that. NPAT was down to 78 million, down from 133 million. they actually had to report a loss in addition to the cut income due to the massive write-down of assets. Yet they still paid a dividend in light of these horrific debt figures. I still don’t understand why they wouldn’t use the free cash to pay off the debt – especially when the company will have no other choice than to issue another capital raising if iron ore prices start to slide again.

OST was a great ST trade, nothing more. I refuse to hold a company long term with huge amounts of debt, that’s writing down assets (even if it was the unprofitable LiteSteel section), cutting jobs, has sliding profit margins and pays dividends rather than paying off the 3 Billion dollar debt it holds (don’t forget, the value of the company is 1.54 billion!)


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A good win.
Posted: February 22nd, 2012 | Author: isplicer | Filed under: Uncategorized | No Comments »
Quick update.

Closed OST at 90c after getting in at 75c. Got out a wee bit early, but a massive win with what was a leveraged position. Two massive wins on the trot – in the green for the month (and quite a bit more!) =D


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OST BABY!
Posted: February 21st, 2012 | Author: isplicer | Filed under: Uncategorized | No Comments »
Making a KILLING on OST – up 16% today! Huge volume and clean through some ST resistances levels. To start getting really bullish I’d like to see a move into the 90's.

We could potentially see the mother of all short-covering rallies in OST (0.27% of issued capital shorted, a ridiculous number compared to even the likes of FMG and MYR!) Got in at 75c and yet I’m willing to hold given the P/E of 4.74 in light of a cash flow statement that surprised to the upside.

I think some serious capital appreciation is on the cards given that the interventionists (from the US, Eurozone and now even China! – with their central bank easing restrictions on lending) will do basically anything to pump the equity markets. A China hard landing seems to have been priced into the Shanghai composite, so there’s that upside there too if Chinese growth collapses to something like 8.5%. Worse comes to worst you get the dividends.

Personally I’ll be bagging profits at 90c (HOPEFULLY!), but just a heads up for LT investors that if we see this sector pick up $1.50-$2 could be on the cards.


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Breakouts everywhere!
Posted: February 20th, 2012 | Author: isplicer | Filed under: Uncategorized | No Comments »
There’s no better feeling than seeing a previously-held position turn sharply against you the session after you close it. RIO rallied by $1.50 today, after I closed my short in the closing minutes of Friday’s session at $66.50. Didn’t make any new trades today amidst so much happening. Dow futures broke through 13,000 and the SPX contracts are making new highs.

The worldwide markets are confirming this strong upmove. I’ve been watching the stock indices of India and China, and both are starting to show rather bullish signs. The SENSEX has broken out of a decisive downtrend and the Shanghai composite is looking like its forming a base.

Update on my positions: MQG, being a rather volatile large-cap, rallied with and outperformed the index, resulting in my positive P/L position for my short being wiped out. As expected, OST had a bit of a breather today after that sharp rally last Friday. Happy to continue holding both. Will be keenly watching the performance of NYSE:AET tonight on Wall st!

I’m thinking of buying S&P500 contracts, will continue to watch…


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