It is very tough to value the business of HDN, or nobody bother to have a go.
Fully diluted share: 152m;
Fully diluted market capital: $40m
Option exercise: $9m
Existing Cash: $8m
EV=$23m
Mining service EBITDA~$3m/yr
apply EV/EBITDA=5
Mining service valued at $15m
This will Leave only $8m for the rest ($23m-$15m)
HDN has project range from grassroot to advance stage:
Coal;
Uranium;
Lignite;
Tantalum
Gold
Garnet
Iron Ore
Base Metal
The company is aimed to become a producer of coal and garnet in medium term, and uranium and iron in the future
Coal and Lignite: $15m? (comparable with RCI, BWN)
Uranium; $10m? (comparable with NTU, NUP)
Tantalum: $10m? (HDN used to be a tantalum producer The average yearly growth rate of about 8 to 12% in tantalum demand since about 1995)
Gold $1m?
Garnet: $5m (medium producer)?
Iron Ore $5m long term producer)?
Base Metal $1m?
Sub-total: Total $57m
+Mining service: $15m
Total: $72m
So 50c/share for HDN is about right.
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