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5% is way too pessimistic. An independent expert's report prepared by DeGolyer and MacNaughton for Woodside in January 2001 as part of the Shell takeover defence gave an average POS of 11.3% and that was before Chinguetti proved the province as a functioning petroleum system. The odds are now significantly better, perhaps 15-20% per lead with more excitement that investing in plastic phallus's.

www.woodside.com.au/content/shell/downloads/3dandm.pdf