Although HDR is not struggling at the moment, I think that long...

Although HDR is not struggling at the moment, I think that long term the writing is on the wall. With Ching revenue well down, Woodside dragging their heels on Tiof and Uganda revenue several years away, HDR would be in a difficult cash position within a couple of years.

With HDR recently trading at about half the placement price the chance them raising money through an issue in the future is close to zero, particularly in London. Add in the possibility of banks being nervous about the 100m credit facility and you have a potentially bleak picture.

Along comes Tullow with a reasonable but not great offer. The board could be looking at this as a cheap put option- if Kingfisher and/or Nzizi were dry, Tullow would still be locked into buying HDR with a $120m break fee.

If Kingfisher and/or Nzizi strike oil, if Ching remediation works OK and Tiof gets the go-ahead before December, the HDR board could say that things have materially changed, here's your $14mill, thanks but no thanks.

This may be a smarter strategy than we had appreciated - guaranteed pon the downside, and the possibility of selling to a higher bidder or walking away if things go well.