The USD is rallying right at the moment which is part of the reason commodities are coming off. However, one could argue that the latest falls in commodities (across the board) are in quantatively out of step with the movement of the $USD, and probably a more fundamental correction in nature.
Of course in the longer term, you are right, most analysts seem to be predicting a 10-15% further decline in the USD, which is one of the reasons why I am very much bullish on the oil price in the longer term.
A technical look at the oil chart doesn't take into account USD movements - it is what it is - and it says $38.50 ... how it gets there is not relevant although it is very helpful to get the bigger picture.
$38.50 is not that far away in percentage terms, so any short term USD strength will proabably take it there. Consider that the $A is yet to find supprort (1.5 lower) as well which adds weight to short term USD strength...
I haven't had a look at the long dated oil futures so far tonight, I trust they are still holding up OK.
All in all, one shouldn't be suprised that the Aust. oil majors haven't come off significantly with the spot price falling heavily, considering this and the low prices instos have been valuing them at...
