I think Chinguetti 2 is a far less risky play than Courbine.It was a rank wildcat,WPL have had time to study detailed 3D. data of C.1,define a step out target,perhaps aggressively,but I would see it as a low to mid risk play.If 2 1/2kms north is unsuccessful,then any sniff of success,will mean a closer stepout to C1 will be drilled,certainly no walk away.
UPSIDE.A good hit,I think will bring a quick bid from WPL,they even have a useful China LNG premium to use,making an equivalent scrip based bid @say $2.00,a real chance ,given their 10% holding and the wide open HDR register,57% is worth double 35%when you totally control a valuable new offshore regional discovery.
DOWNSIDE.I think 50c,for a very brief while as the next 3 wells prepare for drilling.More C1style results will add 50c.plus on each positive result.Some bigger structures obviously will add much more.....SEARAY
HDR
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