re: hdr seriously undervalued.. punting from infonetInteresting...

re: hdr seriously undervalued.. punting from infonet
Interesting comment that, punting OR investing.

Would you call buying NAB shares before the FX option losses investing?

Its all about risk vs rewards at the end of the day BUT Im pretty sure NAB share holders that were in at the top of the market before the looses were disclosed to the market and the subsequent investigations by APRA et al were seriously thinking they were inversting...!

Under that scenario they are all punters!


Not really. The NAB FX losses were something out of left field - it wasn't like anyone told shareholders "in the next few months NAB might make $300M out of punting the USD/AUD rate, or they might lose $300M - pay your money and take your chance". So the outcome that actually happened wasn't a risk that investors should have been aware of when they bought in.

If Hardman have some (any?) disappointing drill results this season and the sp tanks, noone will have right to say they didn't think it could happen!


and from abuman
Hello again Scarebo
You comment about the appraisel wells required for Tiof needs more explanation as you have equated it to some nervousness on the JV behalf.
After drilling Tiof and discovering a substancial oil column it was decide to be agressive and drill a further well 8 KMS to the west expecting to find the edge of the field, what did they find another 120 metre oil column, this last well was drilled on the edge of the existing 3D that was then available, so you are correct there is uncertainty about Tiof but I would suggest that the uncertainty is a positive in this case.
If you look at the latest map of the Tiof structure you will see it extends west well beyond the existing 3D, and obviously needs to be drilled. I don't think the eastern boundry has been established either.
Multi drilling will only increase reserves IMHO.


abu I'm no expert when it comes to seismic, geology, and petrophysics; all I know is that there must still be lots of uncertainties both ways and I've seen enough "sure things" go sour in the oil game not to place Tiof in the "sure thing" category just yet ....

and finally dynofish
At the risk of adding more issues, I think simplistic, "back of the envelope" calculations of value are not worth the paper they are written on. I must say i am a genuine bull when it comes to the long term potential of HDR, but let's not get carried away!

Whatever "valuations" are performed on Mauritanian assets, the significance of the royalty stream/government participation/tax etc needs to be factored in. As well, i note the timing elements that others have incorporated as well as a range of recovery estimates, capex, contingency allowances etc etc etc.

More objectivity is needed on this subject I think.


100% agreement from this corner. If you have a go at a detailed valuation it's amazing just how much of that juicy-looking "$30-40 USD oil price" gets soaked up by the things dyno has listed.

Look, I think HDR has a great position and it could go a lot higher from here. All I'm pointing out is that - unlike when the sp was 70c - at $2 there is a lot more downside risk.

Just my $2 worth.