HDR - WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?????, page-18

Hi folks,

Not sure where you came up with the extra
5 million bopd, ACturtle .......

Even, if they opened all the taps in Iraq tomorrow,
they could only produce 1.5 million bopd maximum,
for export.

This is due to the fact that their infrastructure has
been run down considerably ... another war would
likely see Iraqi oilfields on fire this time, so their
production would be limited even further.

Even if there's no war and sanctions are lifted, then it
will still take a long time to revamp those fields to
enable them to produce 5 million bopd.

Much of that piping, casing and valve assemblies have
seen over 30 years of service in a very corrosive
environment .... much of it prone to sour gas (H2S).

"Beyond Sadaam", the world may benefit from Iraq's
huge reserves, but it will not come as cheap as some
might expect.

-------

Longer term, if there's a downside risk to crude prices,
it will probably come from the gas-to-liquids production,
which provides a cleaner (no nasties) "white" crude,
derived from the abundant gas supplies that we have
globally.

As more of these plants come on stream, the white
crude will compete more effectively on price too, so
the heavy crude price may take a slow slide in the
future.

With the advent of white crude, the world has
effectively extended the life of all our oilfields, but
the oil companies are unlikely to be broadcasting
that with a loud hailer ... not anytime soon, at least.

top trades

yogi