I've just started to look at the Macquarie warrants.
Using and a Black-Scholes Pricing Analysis, with a volatility of about 60% (a bit above what HDR is now), and I note that the fair value of the warrant is around 10.5-11c.
Only thing is thats with a 1 for 1 conversion.
Since its a 2 for 1 conversion; the fair value of the warrant should be about 1/2 this (i.e 5.5 cents).
Earlier people noted that on the current price you need a price for the fully paids to be above $1.14 to break even.
From what I can tell this is an all or nothing play, and McQuarie are putting a large premium on the warrants.
If I have done my calculations wrong can some one please correct.
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