I agree with Chinguetti's "binary" approach, but notice that it...

I agree with Chinguetti's "binary" approach, but notice that it does assume that the market / market-maker will continue to apply a similar approach (Black-Scholes) to price the warrants before and after the result of the next well. The main question is whether the current implied volatilities of over 100% will still be priced in AFTER Banda, or will be dropped to something much lower.

No way to know - you pays your money and you takes your chance.