My views are already clear. I take a fundamental view on what is probable, given the available data, and invest when I feel the time is optimal (ie when the price is as low as I think it is likely to get).
Plenty of risk with that of course, at least in the short term, but I don't worry too much if I am underwater for a while. It is the 1, 2 and 3-year prospects which determine where I load my portfolio.
No doubting the value of TA of course. We know that this stock is very heavily traded by the commercials and they are largely driven by the charts. But that also helps people like me try and find good entry (and sometimes exit points) along a trend.
You ask whether this is the beginning of an uptrend or whether it is just a short-term reaction back up before a continuation of a down-trend. Well, there are no guarantees! We all have to make our own decisions on these matters. You can wait for quarterly results to confirm (or deny) the start of the expected production up-trend, or you can take a view like mine that on the historical evidence of previous company performance they will meet their objectives and reach a rate of 200koz pa by c. 2H14 (ie in just 12 months.
It is worth remembering that when they reached their previous target of 100koz pa (FY11) the gold price was c. US$1500/oz and at that time the MML share price was c. A$8.0. So on the balance of probability, given the higher gold price, they ought to be back above that level in a mere 6-8 months or so.
But, it has to be said, that with so much work having been done and with final crucial tie-ins required for mill and mine to process so much extra ore, there may still be some delays occurring before all the bottle-necks are cleared. Such is life for miners and their investors!
But, the crucial achievement was to complete the Saga shaft down to level 8 (-350m). That has been done and now means that they have c. 1moz sitting in the veins above that haulage level (ie c. 5 years at max throughput!). And as reported, they now have 40 development headings on vein and 15 rises on ore, as the underground development continues apace providing the infrastructure for multiple stopes.
So it comes down to a clear set of fundamentals in place to drive production and earnings up to more than double their previous targets - set against the vagaries of commercial trader action over the shorter term.
To me, the answer is obvious! However, I am often too early - but I can live with that!
Good luck with it. CPDLC
MML Price at posting:
$5.23 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)