If you look what is through what is known as the Westpac 420 Loan data that was released by the Royal Commission, it shows that over 80% of 2016 loans (97% of RAMS) were calculated using HEM Household Expense Metric, the average expense used on the 2016 loans as 19% of income before tax . The ABS HES Metric sits at about 50%, so the HEM metric is less than half its contemporary , if you want to check the viability of the HEM metric simply google search a HEM calculator , as an example a family of 7, 2 adults and 5 children are caulcuated to have total household expenses at the mid point of 808 per week befopre tax. (which is ridiculous) this means that at least for the 2016 the data is telling us that 50% or more of the Westpac loan book is non prime or worse. Interest only resets 2018-2021 look to be aropund 450B, lets say this increase payments by 200-300 basis points when expenses are calculated reasonably , this translates to a reduced borrow capicity of 150-350K per customer. In 2008-2012 GFC resets in that period amounted 1.6T but 800B in the first 5 years. So if we look for a period to period comparison, we have half the number of resets with 7% of the population. In suspect the rest of the banks were asleep at the wheel in a similiar way. If I may highlight this is real data not hypthesis. I have presented to CFOs representing about 24% of Australian GDP over the last week including about 30% of our 1st tier and regional bank CFOs not one of them has taken issue with any of my data on the risks going forward.
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