Interesting to go back in this thread and see how much momentum...

Interesting to go back in this thread and see how much momentum and support there was in April-June at the $6-7 mark. Since then, nothing has changed except better management, more markets accessed, and continued evidence of revenue growth. The share price is now trading back at around those levels.

I did some back of the envelope calculations of the potential value for MVP. Based on a TAM of Penthrox of $250m as reported by MVP (which perhaps seems on the high side but if you factor in US being upto 50% of the market and yet to receive FDA approval it could end up being conservative), that's around $150m gross profit and $75m EBIT based on current margins. If no further share dilution via cap raising, then that could be a share price of $15 based on industry standard PE ratios. Using another valuation method based on peak sales x3 for a Phase 3 drug (total valuation of $750m, though really this is beyond Phase 3 except for US/FDA), I got around $12 per share. And if you add in the asthma medical devices, MVP have reported peak sales of $150m per annum which I think is very bullish. That has an estimated value of around x4 sales (conservative compared to industry average of x5 for medical devices), so an additional $600m in value or around $9 to the share price. And presumably there will be a wee bit of value in the vet products that I presume may get divested at some point.

All of this has some years to play out of course, but just to say I think $12 may be a stepping stone along the way. As long as they keep making the right decisions I will be happy to add to my position. I reckon we may have seen the end of $5s, and possibly $6s depending on the broader market movements.. and looks like the market is pretty keen to plow through the $7s as quickly as possible. Go you good thing.