hebei steel seeks to finance aurox project, page-15

jman,

my take on this is that AXO would rather have RockCheck and Hebei/Chengde as JV partners that some stupid fund managers like the ones that have sold AXO off over the past few weeks. its seems to me that AXO management is giving the bird to the investment community and is saying if you cant recognise the value of this project then the off take partners that have already signed up can.

i would also assume that AXO management might be also trying to get access to Chinese bank funding to try and get a higher LVR than 65%. im prerry sure the banking syndicate will give the 65% in debt funding but AXO might be thinking that if it can get the chinese steel mills involved directly that they might be able to access cheaper debt through their chinese banking contacts and maybe they can get access to a higher LVR than 65%. again its just speculation but i would also bet that AXO management is saying to the chinese, look, we have Evraz wanting in on this deal, if you cough up some cash for the equity component and get us some access to Chinese finance we will shut Evraz out and only sell them what ever offtake you dont want. thats my take on it.

as for RockCheck, if i was them i would be buying AXOG like no tomorrow rather than the fully paid. who knows but they must be closing in on the 19.99% level.

i still cant beleive people are selling this stock down, it makes me more sure that the selling is coming from hedge funds. one thing is for sure, someone other than RockCheck has been buying up big over the past few weeks. to get 5% they would need to buy 7.5m shares. If we see someone else get up to 7.5% then it will be on for young and old, i would love it to be Evraz, maybe the Merrill Lynch holding is Evraz, remembering that Merrill's handled the stock in CFE for Evraz.

its already trading very close to cash backing so there is more risk in holding BHP etc than holding AXO.