hedge funds manipulate stock in secret, page-53

Hello Byteme,

Thank you for your moderate if somewhat provocative message.

I'll tell you another story which refers to the claim regarding 20/20 vision.

In October last year, I had some friends who had recently retired and opened up SMSFs. They were all gung-ho. They were going to get into the stock market (and, by implication, make lots of money).

I didn't tell them - "No Don't Do That".

What I did was to run a course on "Reading the Stock Market". (This is something I do from time to time for people who are interested.) I suggested to my friends that if they were going to be in the stock market they should know how to be on the "right" side of the market.

The course ran for two three hour sessions on consecutive Saturdays. I do these courses for free. The course covered some really simple, basic stuff.

At the end of the course, they made the decision not to enter the market just yet. Their decision.

At the end of November, one of those people was bugging me - wanting to know if it was time yet to get into the market? (If you remember, there was a nice rally in the latter part of November.)

I didn't give a direct answer - just asked some questions.

That person didn't enter the market then.

In early January - that person emailed me and said their theoretical portfolio (the one they had intended beginning with at the end of October) was now down $36,000.

You asked me the question - what will the market be like in 3 months time.

I haven't the foggiest.

In the words of one famous analyst - "I'm a trend following moron."

But - I will be able to tell you when the trend has changed. How long it will last - I don't know. I just stay with a trend until it changes.

Its all there in the price - do what the market is telling you.

Simple really.

My friends are still out of the market - making nice money in their interest bearing deposits. Not getting rich - but not getting poor either.

I might add that I also write a "Weekly Stock Market Report - For Educational Purposes" which I distribute for free to a group of close friends. That report currently says that the market as measured by the XAO is still "sick". I'm happy to change that reading at the drop of a hat. Not really - it will be because the indicators show a change in trend.

In order to read the Report - one really has to have done the course - its a follow-up to the course. It simply reiterates and reinforces the principles I teach in the course.

As for a crystal ball - I don't have one. Anybody who claims to have one, I believe, is not being very sensible. But I do have the market prices everyday. And I do have indicators to follow (some of which I've developed myself as well as the standard ones many people use). And I do believe I can detect a trend. That tends to lag a bit. That's the way of these things. I don't pretend to be able to pick the exact top and bottom of a market. But I do think I can get a big meaty bit in the middle.

Cheers
Red