I thought part of the reason for the recent strength in the NCM...

I thought part of the reason for the recent strength in the NCM price is because they have closed out their hedge book - making them much more appealing.

Another reason is that their big new mine is about to come on stream - with world scale volume of ounces produced at production costs very low by world standards.

Finally, they are on a PER of around 15, while US and South African miners are closer to 25-30 and 20 respectively. Plenty of scope for a scrip based takeover with minimum dilution of value to the buyer under those circumstances.