hedging my bets

Ok - I looked at this thing from a few angles and this is what I came up with.

I kept my holding in AVX which is averaged down to 23c - ouch! I think the deep discount was due to the uncertainty of their cash position vis-a-vis the Phase III trials which this deal addresses.

I just bought a wheelbarrow full of PGL which will more than triple my holding in the merged entity if it goes ahead (this will take some explaining to the missus).

I still have AVX directly so if another suitor comes out of the woodwork I get the upside. If the PGL holders vote it down I get the PGL cash and AVX continues to disappoint.

So I think I have the dilution covered if the deal goes ahead, I have another AVX suitor covered if it gets picked off and the PGL cash if it doesn't come off....

The big assumption is, of course, the one that I started with, i.e. ATC will be commercialised successfully.

Am i missing something?