the only hedge that had any meaningful gain was the final top of...

the only hedge that had any meaningful gain was the final top of the gold run, howeever it was also the exact start of the XGD bear market, so i dont really think its relevant unless you consiously intend to hold forever including through sector bear markets. thats being said, it would be relevant in terms of profit / dividends to large holders like GMcG who wouldnt trading at all.

ive recorded the 91 day and 182 day moving averages to get an average spot price for 3 and 6 months after the start of each window

this is assuming the most generous circumstance that nostradamus could pick to the very dollar of the top of each run.

Pivot 1: 3 month -8.50 6 month -62.50
Pivot 2: 3 month +66 6 month -59
Pivot 3: 3 month -88 6 month -138
Pivot 4: 3 month +137 6 month -17

2 out of 8 secenarios of picking the absolute perfect top worked, as Braunie has illustraded many times to us, picking perfect tops to hedge at is virtually impossible, even when making a new guess every $50 higher

hedging in a bull market is like going to the pokies and expecting to make money