Thats one possible outcome for excellent pipe reform outcomes and 8-10 LNG price and spot market price. Its all pie in the sky though and you cvan run any combo of numbers you like but this looks reasonable to me in the current climate. Note the valuation is highly sensitive to pipeline tariffis as the single most crucial consideration as RC keeps reminding us. Ive got a fair bit of spend in there for the processing plant upgrades and exploration etc but its just a punt. Im also assuming the NGP capacity increases from 90TJ/d to 160TJ/d in 2021.
So yes, I was happy with SOA on the basis that MAC would want to double their incvestment and therefore we'd only see half the NPV and we'd get the CVNs as cream. Possibly wishful thinking yes but I do give the CTP board more credit than the regular HC hecklers.
Also the pipeline reform progress since SOA is looking to improve the citygate profit margin by at least $1 with all uncovered pipes now included.
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