It certainly appears that way. And like everyone else here, I would have preferred to have sold closer to 20c … a year ago!
However, with this situation, what you also need to consider is this …
Shell/PetroChina are sitting on their hands currently on 8,000PJ's of gas (what ratio is "P" to "C" I'm not sure) in the Bowen Basin, surrounding Blue's ATP-814. They have current approval for 6000 additional wells, plus approval for a pipeline to Gladstone.... But, as mentioned, they are sitting on their hands in the Bowen currently in favour of pursuing the Surat Basin to the south.
Shell are believers that by 2021, the gas shortage will be getting critical. They have spent many billions getting positioned in Qld and the Bowen. PetroChina would love to be all guns blazing - Shell is the pain in the a**** at the moment apparently.
Question is, when will the penny fall in the slot machine? Read pressures become too great NOT to get active?
It would be hard to believe - if Shell/PetroChina finally get cracking, they wouldn't swallow up 814 as a matter of course. It is too logical (and relatively very cheap for them) not to.... So at 5c and a MC sub $50m, is it worth selling Blue, now? I don't think so. If a deal gets done with anyone, it has to be worth many times the current share price. Risk/reward? If nothing happens for a year or two, your advice is possibly right. But if something occurs within 6-9 months, given we are already languishing at 5c, following the advice would be very unfortunate. It's too hard and too late
Deals historically often happen later in cycles than we expect. How many of the other peer gas stocks like Blue have been so far bought out by the big guys? NONE, to my recollection.
I for one am not going to tough this out and get out only to miss an "inevitable" deal. Others can... Mind you, I don't like sitting watching my money decay doing nothing either. Welcome to the share market eh?
