JID,As I have posted before I believe you are on the right path...

JID,

As I have posted before I believe you are on the right path here. A few facts worth considering;
1. The stock overhang is two fold, firstly the 22m shares held by ANZ, and secondly the 10.1m shares held by the AFG liquidator
2. the AFG Liquidator's shares are subject to escrow and cannot be traded for some 6 years, while the management agreement stays alive
3. The management fees are only payable on transaction events and on disposal based upon IRR hurdles, no acquisitions, no disposals, no fees
4. Both ANZ and AFG liquidator want to monetize their holdings for maximum return. Market price $2, net assets $5. That is 35% of the register putting pressure on for a wind up.
5. a wind up could be slae of Baycorp, Signature and distribution of proceeds plus cash. The IBA shares could / should be distributed in specie.
6. Note AEP increased share buyback 21 Nov, but last purchase was 26 Nov.
7. Notice early december announcement of UBS strategic review
8. Suggest the reason for strategic review is pressure from ANZ for wind up.
9. We will hear outcome of strategic review this month with half year results.
10. we will hear IBA dec results on 17 Feb

I love stock overhangs because they are often solved in an overnight fashion and stock rallies.

Discount may last for a while but suggest that we are getting close to an event on this one.

Enjoy holders