I've been watching this with interest for years now, primarily because I am a large shareholder. Judging by the (complete lack of) activity in this chatroom, I'm just about the only one...
Lets just recap what has been said by the company:
1. This is the biggest single reserve of Potash in the world. Of any type (MOP or SOP - SOP is more valuable but a smaller market currently) Keep in mind it has never been drilled at depth, and hasnt actually been closed off in all directions as yet. But already the mine life they are discussing is not in years - its in centuries.
2. Colluli is the best quality potash deposit in the world. There is MOP (Muriate of Potash ~ $300 - $400 per ton) and SOP (Sulphate of Potash ~ $600 per ton) and then there is the best known quality potash in the world - SOP from Colluli. Why does this matter?
- Because potash is the most valuable and rarest of three irreplaceable elements (nitrogen, phosphate and potash) that make all things grow. Without these, we would not eat. .
- Because its BHP's "Fifth pillar" - ie the worlds biggest resource company has stated it is where they will grow.
- And Colluli can make potash in any form the market wants (MOP or SOP) - its big enough and good enough to influence world potash prices.
3. Colluli is the cheapest opex cost per ton and capex cost per ton to produce. It also has the lowest transport costs to the major potash markets - China and India.
4. Sovereign risk has been mitigated. The Eritrean government ie "The Sovereign" is actually the partner in this project, need STB's expertise to develop the project, and are working together with STB to develop the project. To state the obvious, the Eritrean governments international reputation is poor - but as we are all aware, there are two sides to every story. I have been to Eritrea, found the people to be honourable, and felt perfectly safe. I feel safe enough to have this as my largest investment. You can choose to believe this, or you can choose to believe what is printed by the Ethiopian Government and its friends - but keep in mind the Eritreans kicked their arses in a 25 year war of independence, and took all the ports in doing so, leaving one of the largest countries in Africa landlocked. So they have had good reason to be unhappy...
5. STB is ridiculously cheap. ~ $60Mill (Mkt Cap) or ~ $50Mill (EV). But this number shouldnt be compared to the published NPV's, as the NPV covers 20 years - not 200 years, which is closer to the actual mine life.
So its the worlds biggest potash reserve, the best, the cheapest to produce and transport.
The negative? Its not financed. But there are two Chinese funds on the register, who you would expect to be competing to fund the project - keep in mind that the Chinese are very active in Eritrea, and have no issues with the country. So you can buy it now, or buy it after the DFS in the next few months, when it will be financed.
What will it be worth then? Maybe have a look at Potash Corp to get an idea... a $40Billion takeover bid by BHP was knocked back a few years ago.
Feel free to tell me I'm wrong. If you're out there....
Cheers
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